MLB’s Top Starting Pitchers Through May 2026

For these rankings, I focused on a combination of traditional and advanced pitching metrics. ERA (Earned Run Average) measures how many earned runs a pitcher allows per nine innings, while ERA- adjusts ERA for league and ballpark factors, with 100 representing league average and lower numbers being better. WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) shows how many baserunners a pitcher allows, making it a useful indicator of overall effectiveness. I also used E-F, which is the difference between a pitcher’s ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP estimates a pitcher’s performance based only on outcomes he can largely control—strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs.

A negative E-F suggests a pitcher may be benefiting from strong defense or favorable luck, while a positive E-F can indicate that poor defense or bad luck is inflating his ERA. Together, these metrics help paint a more complete picture of not only how well a pitcher has performed, but also how sustainable that performance may be moving forward. (Stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant updated until May 18th)

AMERICAN LEAGUE PITCHERS

Cam Schlittler

is a no-brainer here. He is my front runner for Cy Young so for in the American League and honestly, it isn’t close. His 33 ERA- is leading the AL, so is his 1.35 ERA, and his WHIP is second best in all of baseball behind Paul Skenes. He’s given up 2 homers while pitching at Yankee Stadium with a short right field porch. He’s 6-1 with 6 quality starts in the first third of the season. 

Nick Martinez

has been fantastic for the Rays. His lower strikeout rate than others on this list isn’t alarming, but he has definitely benefited from a strong defense behind him. He has the highest E-F (ERA minus FIP, which is an indicator of good luck and really good defense) showing that while he’s pitching well… he’s had some good luck on his side. Martinez only trails Schlittler by 3 in ERA- and his ERA is 1.51. Very good start for Nick Martinez. I’ll be interested to see if the trend continues with his high E-F rating. 

Davis Martin

has been one of my bigger surprises this season. He has ELITE stuff. He shoved against the Cubs in a crosstown classic matchup that was widely covered by Pete Crow-Armstrong antics… but Martin was dominant in 6 innings only giving up one run on a homer. His ERA and ERA- are both third best in the AL, but his E-F is close to average, showing that he isn’t really benefitting too much from great defense or luck. He’s just been elite. This is surprising for a guy who spent the past 3 seasons with a losing record and an ERA over 4. Martin has been a big reason the White Sox have a record over .500 right now. 

Dylan Cease

has a 2.41 ERA and a .54 E-F rating, meaning he’s actually hurting from BAD defense and BAD luck. He’s actually pitching better than a 2.41… His 1.87 FIP is second best in all of MLB behind only Schlittler. Cease in past years has been a true 3 outcomes pitcher…. Strikeouts, walks, homers. This season, he has been striking out a lot of batters, walking a meh amount of batters but he’s only given up 1 home run. In 51 innings. The only pitcher with better is Max Fried who’s thrown 61 innings and given up 1, as well. Jameson Taillon in the National League has given up 16 homers in 50 innings for perspective. Cease has been dominant. 

Parker Messick

You might look at Parker Messick and think… what? I also did the same when I looked at FanGraphs. Messick is 5-1 with a 2.35 ERA. He actually has a better ERA- than Dylan Cease! What I really like about Messick is that he has a WHIP under 1. He’s at .99 through the first third of the season. Messick has a top 16 strikeout to walk ratio as well. He’s pitching in a pretty good rotation with Gavin Williams, so I see his numbers being this good through the season. 

HM – Jose Soriano

has been a bright spot for the Angels pitching staff. He’s holding batters to a .179 average which is 5th best in MLB. He has the same ERA- as Messick, but has benefitted from a little bit of better luck and defense showing with a higher E-F rating. The problem for Soriano is that he’s walking about 4 batters every 9 innings. Can he withstand these great numbers throughout the season if he continues to walk batters at a high rate? I guess we will see. 

NATIONAL LEAGUE PITCHERS

Christopher Sanchez

has been elite. If you haven’t watched a Sanchez start, you need to. Sanchez has put together 7 quality starts, has one of five complete games in the MLB so far this season and it was a shut out. He’s 7th for strikeouts to walks ratio and has a -.11 E-F notating that his ERA is barely affected by luck or defense. His pitching has simply been that good. His ERA is the best in the National League, and he’s 5-2, with 7 quality starts. He’s going to win more now that the Phillies are hitting. 

Shohei Ohtani

currently boasts the lowest ERA (0.82) and ERA- (20). His Strikeouts/9 innings rate is about even with Cam Schlittler, but Ohtani is only walking about 2.65 batters per 9 innings which is over 1 more than Schlittler. The reason I have Christopher Sanchez rated higher is due to Ohtani’s E-F rating of -1.56 showing he’s getting pretty lucky and has had good defense around him, compared to Sanchez’s near non-existent E-F. All 7 of Ohtani’s starts have been quality starts, despite having a 3-2 record, by the way. His pitching has been elite, but the Dodgers haven’t scored many runs during his starts. 

Chase Burns

The Reds’ Chase Burns is a guy who really took me by surprise. Six quality starts with a 5-1 record over his 9 starts so far, his 44 ERA- is the fifth best in all of baseball. He’s been bailed out a little bit by good luck and good defense with an E-F of -1.65 but his WHIP is at 1 even. That’s a very good start for Burns. The other very good start is that his left on base rate is at 95.2%. Meaning, 95.2% of batters who reach base, never get to home plate. That’s success that I don’t think is sustainable but I’m sure Cincinnati is hoping otherwise. Burns has been stellar though. One thing to watch with Burns is his speed. He’s nearly lost a full MPH on his average fastball since last year, but he’s gained an MPH on his average changeup. His change is speeds can be a huge differentiator in his success this season.

Chris Sale

is the Ace for the Braves right now, but Bryce Elder isn’t far behind. No wonder this team is 34-16. Their starting rotation is led by two dawgs. Sale and Elder are both 7th and 8th best in MLB in ERA- and ERA. Their E-F rates are almost identical as well, with Sale at a -1.27 and Elder at a -1.19. Both are getting a bit of good luck and solid defense behind them. Elder gives up less homers, Sale strikes out more guys, and the Braves keep winning with them on the mound. The Braves are 10-5 in 19 starts with Sale or Elder on the mound and they’ve combined for a total of 15 quality starts. Again, both guys are very similar, they both hold batters to a .183 (Sale) and .185 (Elder) average and have an under 1 WHIP. They’re both pitching at elite levels. 

HM – Michael McGreevy

is the type of guy every manager wants in their rotation. McGreevy isn’t flashy, not a high strikeout rate, but he gets outs. He’s got an elite WHIP of .88, a 2.10 ERA and that’s in part by his league leading -1.76 E-F rating showing that he is the luckiest and most benefitted pitcher by good defense. I have to give McGreevy his due though because he’s holding runners on base, his left on base mark is 90.2%, 6th best in baseball, so even when he does get in trouble, he finds a way out. Unlike most of the pitchers on this list, McGreevy relies on movement, not speed, to get his outs. He has a bottom 5 percentile fastball in speed, but a top 97 percentile in fastball run value. If he can continue controlling his movement and having good luck with defense, he may move up this list in the next third of the season.