The 2026 NFL Head Coach Hold’Em – Every New Head Coach This Year.

It’s already been over 12 months since the 2025 Hold’Em. One of my first main articles as a member of Behind The Coaching. For those unfamiliar with the concept, the Head Coach Hold’Em ranks every head coach’s position on a new team in 2026 and compares their roster or “hand.” Using last year as an example, here was my ranking of the seven coaches compared to their regular season win percentage from best to worst.

Article Ranking: Ben Johnson/Bears, Brian Schottenheimer/Cowboys, Mike Vrabel/Patriots, Liam Coen/Jaguars, Aaron Glenn/Jets, Pete Carroll/Raiders, and Kellen Moore/Saints.

Actual Finish: Vrabel/Patriots, Coen/Jaguars, Johnson/Bears, Schottenheimer/Cowboys, Moore/Saints, Glenn/Jets, and Carroll/Raiders.

Given the bizarre 2025 season which concluded with an unpredictable Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl, I’d say this was a success. If I thought my writing or personality had any bias, I would not be making content. Now moving on to 2026 is an even taller order, as the league witnessed a record ten head coaching changes. This including last year’s mid-season firings.

2026 will introduce new head coaches for the: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tennessee Titans. From worst to best, here’s the hand each team holds with the regular season just a few short weeks away.

#10: Dolphins’ Jeff Hafley – High Card Ace

Some people don’t consider “high card” as a poker hand and would make a decent argument. The same could be said about the Dolphins’ outlook for 2026. Jeff Hafley steps in to replace Mike McDaniel after serving as a moderately successful Defensive Coordinator for the Green Bay Packers two years running. However, Hafley will likely have an uphill battle this year. (Even if new Quarterback Malik Willis turns out to be worth this contract.)

The team runs through ace Running Back De’von Achane, who legitimately has a chance to lead the team in targets. Unfortunately, this is where the good news ends. Hafley is 22-26 as a head coach in the NCAA, and is stepping in to a team favored for the #1 pick in April 2027. Playmakers Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Darren Waller have left for greener pastures. One of the best defensive weapons in pass rusher Bradley Chubb has gone to the divisional rival Buffalo Bills. While Jordyn Brooks has been a productive off-ball linebacker since his Seattle days, he cannot do everything.

The Dolphins selected Offensive Tackle Kaleb Proctor and Cornerback Chris Johnson 12th and 27th overall this past draft. DraftKings.com projects Miami to win roughly five games. In short, the team screams ‘rebuild’ and doesn’t set Hafley up at all. While it will be interesting to see his development with Malik Willis in his first full season as starter, there isn’t a hand worth showing in 2026.

#9: Cardinals’ Mike Lafleur – Pair of 3’s

Obviously the three’s resemble Jeremiyah Love, the team’s new RB taken third overall in April. Arizona’s offense is definitely in better shape than Miami’s; perfect for a guy like Mike Lafleur. The new head coach has spent time in the NFL since 2014 and replaces the dreadful Jonathan Gannon. His best and most recent accomplishments come in the form of being the Offensive Coordinator for the incredible Los Angeles Rams. All three lead to playoff appearances, while last year earned QB Matthew Stafford the MVP award and WR Puka Nacua the fantasy WR1.

While this is an impressive resume for Lafleur, the Cardinals are an obvious downgrade. QB Jacoby Brissett was signed to a one-year deal to hold the team over, OC Nathaniel Hackett described the rookie Jeremiyah Love as *a rookie*, and former fourth overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn’t been able to gain traction as the supposed star WR1 on the team. The offense will likely run through All-Pro Tight End Trey McBride again, while Safety Budda Baker attempts to keep the defense from falling apart. The 2025 squad was bottom five in points allowed and not far behind in yards allowed.

Another team playing for 2027 in perhaps the league’s hardest division; Arizona will take a year to get Lafleur, Love, even backup QB Carson Beck adapted to the franchise. This is the season the team will financially suffer the loss of former QB Kyler Murray. If Lafleur shares the same talent and mentality as his brother/Packers HC Matt, this season will simply be the stepping stone for the future. Don’t expect the Cardinals to be a dark horse in 2026.

#8: Browns’ Todd Monken – Two Pair

The first of three head coaches to change in the AFC North, Monken replaces Kevin Stefanski. The former Browns’ OC is perhaps the most experienced name on this list, having coached football since 1989. Similar to Lafleur, Monken spent the last three years as OC for the division-rival Baltimore Ravens. Meaning, Monken was present for Lamar’s brilliant 2023 & 2024 seasons, but also present for the great decline last year presented Baltimore. But, he was also present for Georgia’s dominant championship victories in 2021 & 2022. At 60 years old, the veteran surprisingly steps into his first NFL HC role.

So, is this the start of a new era for Cleveland? Eh…maybe? The arguments against this are clear as can be. Stereotypes about Cleveland aside, Deshaun Watson looks to be the QB1 going into September, when he’ll turn 31. Here’s a reminder that Watson hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game since October 20, 2024. Backup QB Shedeur Sanders hasn’t looked promising either with a QBR of 18.9 last year. 18.9. That is not a typo.

There’s plenty more positive to say about the rest of the team, however. The 2025 draft went well for Cleveland, as their first four draft picks have all turned into viable starters with plenty of upside. This year’s draft included OT Spencer Fano along with Wide Receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston all being selected in the first 39 picks to help Watson on offense. RB Quinshon Judkins and TE Harold Fannin Jr. look to have breakout sophomore seasons in the best offensive line we’ve looked at so far. While Myles Garrett met his inevitable end with the Browns, Jared Verse comes over as a solid replacement. With this, Cleveland still holds talent on all three levels of defense with Verse, Carson Schwesinger at linebacker, and CB Denzel Ward in the secondary.

The AFC North threw plenty of surprise at their fans in 2025. A lot of this year banks on what Monken can do to bring back vintage Deshaun Watson. If able to work his magic the same way he did for Georgia/Baltimore, this may be the second year we just discussed with Arizona. It’s not likely, but the potential for “dark horse” status certainly exists.

#7: Raiders’ Klint Kubiak – Three of a Kind

The OC of the Super Bowl champion Seahawks makes his way over to Las Vegas. It turns out Pete Caroll had nothing left to offer Thus, the Raiders are the only team in the Hold’Em for the second year in a row. Kubiak will lead the 2026 squad that just obtained QB Fernando Mendoza with #1 overall pick. Having held offensive positions around the NFL since 2013, Kubiak led Sam Darnold a Super Bowl victory, which nobody would have envisioned a couple years ago. Jaxon Smith-Njigba rose to win the Offensive Player of the Year Award, and the team as a whole would finish top ten in total points and yards. New OC Andrew Janocko previously worked with Kubiak in Darnold during last year’s triumph.

Transitioning to the Raiders, a young core has been cemented for Kubiak after a disastrous prior year. Kirk Cousins has been brought in as signal-caller to replace Geno Smith and help mold the mind of Mendoza. Around them are young yet amazing talents in RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers. The team also signed Center Tyler Linderbaum, generally seen as top-five in the league. The team’s sack leader Maxx Crosby returns after a potential trade to Baltimore was botched, while their interception leader Kyu Blu Kelly is about to come back after his breakout season ended early.

On the contrary, Las Vegas is far from perfect. Tre Tucker aims to be the team’s projected WR1 after finishing last year with 747 scrimmage yards. As he played in all 17 games, he averaged 43.9 yards per contest. Devin White has left for the Detroit Lions after having the third most combined tackles in the league in 2025. Kirk Cousins may be an arguable improvement over Geno, but this doesn’t mean promise aside from his mentor skills. Last year gave us Cousins’ worst completion percentage and second-worst QBR when he’s played at least half the season.

The Raiders are relying heavily on young talent aside from Cousins and Crosby. While a division title isn’t in their near future, the pieces could fall into place as soon as this year. Much like the team being one of the youngest in the league, Kubiak himself is only 39. Should the new head coach have more to offer than an OC skillset, Vegas could have a very bright future. As 2026 serves as the beginning of a hopeful turning point; expect some road bumps, Mendoza rookie mistakes, and lack of real WR depth.

#6: Titans’ Robert Saleh – Straight

Interning with the Houston Texans in 2005, Robert Saleh has managed to stay in the league since. Most notably spending his time as the San Francisco 49ers’ recent DC, Saleh also served four subpar years as the New York Jets’ HC until 2024. The Jets are notorious for their lack of success this decade, but Saleh leading them to back-to-back seven-win seasons is genuinely not bad in hindsight. Brian Daboll has been hired on as offensive coordinator after New York Giants gave him the axe as their HC last year. While Daboll has some lackluster N.Y. history, he helped produce some promise in another rookie QB, Jaxson Dart.

Thankfully for Saleh, the Tennessee Titans are not the New York Jets. Although with two 3-14 seasons in a row, they might as well have been. Last year was the third most points ever given up in a season by Tennessee. Their offense scored the third least points in 2025 and had the second lowest yards per game. #1 overall pick. Cam Ward gave hints of Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season. Urban Meyer tanked the Jaguars and hindered the Clemson production, while Ward had to deal with Brian Callahan in an underwhelming team.

Not only have the Titans gained more identity, but they’re also more fleshed out than the Jets were under Saleh. Ward has potential for a breakout sophomore season. He’s been given two new WRs in this year’s #4 overall pick Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson. TE Gunnar Helm is also poised for a bigger year two as Chig Oknonkwo has signed with Washington. All-pro DT Jeffrey Simmons has been given help in the front seven via three players. John-Franklin Myers has come over from the Denver Broncos while the team drafted EDGE Kedric Faulk 31st overall. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. was drafted 60th overall and valued as one of the best second-round picks. He’ll join a linebacker core including Cody Barton and Cedric Gray, the latter of which finished third in the league in total tackles.

Tennessee enters year two of the Cam Ward Era. There’s potential for a lot more to improve rather than worsen compared to 2025. The Titans won’t win the division and are unlikely for wildcard. The aforementioned identity gathered runs through this very young offense with quiet, yet solid improvements on defense. With the history behind Saleh and Daboll to solidify development on this squad, the ceiling is higher for this team than any we’ve discussed so far.

#5: Giants’ John Harbaugh – Flush

Cards on the table here: the Giants were my hardest team to rank. General Manager Joe Schoen brings on John Harbaugh, who’s head coaching a new team for the first time since 2008. After a tenured career with the Ravens, Harbaugh replaces Brian Daboll on a team that is…honestly in a weird state. It’s worth noting that last year’s interim head coach, Mike Kafka, is out of New York as well. Harbaugh will take over a squad led by mobile QB Jaxon Dart. Obviously, Harbaugh has made well with the mobile archetype in multi-MVP Lamar Jackson.

The Giants run through the young trio of Dart, WR Malik Nabers, and RB Cam Skattebo. The good news? These three are only 23/24 years old and have just begun their careers. The bad news? Injuries have already impacted each of them, allowing for minimal playing time together. While the small sample size we could see looked good, it meant nothing with the Giants sitting low in the NFC standings. The offense has been extended through the signing of fellow former-Raven TE Isaiah Likely, number ten overall draftee OT Francis Mauigoa, and WR Malachi Fields drafted in the third round.

Last year’s offense improved to middle-of-the-pack in yards and points after being bottom of the barrel in 2024. The defense is unfortunately still at the bottom. LB Arvell Reese falling to pick five in the draft may have been a saving grace for the Giants. DE Dexter Lawrence was traded in April, but Brian Burns returns from a 16.5 sack season with three forced fumbles. Veterans D.J. Reader and Shelby Harris have been brought in to fill the gap on the D-Line in place of Lawrence. The secondary, however, saw little improvement despite only having nine interceptions last year. (One of which was from Lawrence.) Even though this is a glaring issue, the Ravens’ have one of the league’s best secondaries led by Kyle Hamilton. DC Dennard Wilson was hired this past offseason…who has worked with Harbaugh before on the defense. Interesting.

We continue to discuss high ceilings, and the Giants are atop that list should everyone stay healthy. Nabers is reported to be ready for week one, Skattebo is literally doing backflips (for some reason), and the team as a whole will be coached into a whole new mentality. One that gave the Ravens plenty of playoff success over the last decade and a half. The NFC East was a familiar blend of unpredictable last year. While the division likely won’t go to the Giants, this is the first dark horse on our list.

#4: Falcons’ Kevin Stefanski – Full House

At number four is the former head coach of the Cleveland Browns, who is dealing with a QB battle between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa. Trust me, it does not feel good doing so. But we need to look at some facts. Kevin Stefanski has won coach of the year twice with that Browns franchise. His first five years produced a record of 38-30 before the last two rough years. Penix was a top ten pick only two years ago. Tagovailoa once led the league in passing yards. The Falcons finished 8-9 last year in a season that got HC Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot fired. They also tied the division-winning Panthers. Who is to say a fresh coat of paint won’t revitalize everyone?

This isn’t some call to send Atlanta on a deep playoff run. There’s still work to be done. Penix recorded a 9:3 TD/Int ratio in nine games started while being injured for the other eight. Tagovailoa posted a career worst 37.5 QBR last year before being benched for Quinn Ewers. However, WR Drake London and continues to excel while TE Kyle Pitts finally broke out last year. RB Bijan Robinson is one of the best players in the league and is currently the second overall pick in fantasy drafts. The Falcons also managed to tie the Denver Broncos in allowing the second-fewest sacks in the league with 26. Even though T Kaleb McGary shockingly retired, Jawaan Taylor has been signed in his place.

After previously being a terrible defense, last year saw some young bucks on the uprise. D-Linemen James Pearce Jr, Brandon Dorlus, and Jalon Walker were the team’s sack leaders. The three combined for 24.5 and their average age is 22.3. Despite Walker being injured for all of 2026, he won’t be going anywhere. Xavier Watts at Safety recorded five picks as a rookie, while DeAundre Alford and Jessie Bates had three each. What’s most important here is the retention rate. Everyone being on their rookie contracts mean everybody is back this year. A majority can be said for the offense too.

The team as a whole has been fine over the last few years. Besides Bijan, nothing has been excellent or next-level in Atlanta. With enough proven talent, possibility for bounce-back, and a free-for-all NFC South, Stefanski is the first coach we’ve looked at who could and might win the division. Everyone and their dog knows his starting situation in 2026 is far better than Cleveland’s. (Even if QB battles seem to follow him.) That said; if Tagovailoa finds his old self in 2026, this team will be surprising a lot of people. Just like they surprised the Bills last year.

#3: Steelers’ Mike McCarthy – Four of a Kind

A lot of people including myself didn’t expect QB Aaron Rodgers to return for 2026. Less people believed he would be reunited with Mike McCarthy. Absent from the NFL in 2025, McCarthy spent his latter years with the Dallas Cowboys after being fired from the Green Bay Packers. Perhaps it’s due to the lack of playoff success in Dallas, but McCarthy deserves his flowers. His career as a HC is currently 174-112-2 and began during his time with Rodgers. Replacing long-time Steeler Mike Tomlin is no joke, but a needed change for both parties. McCarthy will coach the 2026 Steelers after winning about 62% of his games in Green Bay, and 58% of his Dallas games.

While the WR duo of Michael Pittman Jr. and DK Metcalf may not be Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, they’re a viable WR1 and WR2. The former comes from Indianapolis and is known for his consistency. The latter joined Pittsburgh last year, caught 59 receptions for 850 yards, and serves as a bulky red-zone threat. Rico Dowdle enters the backfield alongside Jaylen Warren as a stellar alternate. If Warren gave Dowdle 50 of his yards from 2025, they’d have both *just* been over 1,000 on the year. OT Max Iheanachor and WR Germie Bernard were respectively drafted 21st and 47th overall to help with depth.

The Steelers admittedly took a step backwards on defense. Pittsburgh’s ranking of 26th in yards allowed was the franchise’s worst since 1991. Award winners DE Cam Heyward and CB Jalen Ramsey reasonably stood out while other pro-bowler LB TJ Watt had a down year. The linebackers who stood out were Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, who both return after leading with 9.5 and 7.5 sacks respectively. Even with Ramsey starting 2026 on the Physically Unable to Perform list, everyone mentioned will be back for 2026. With a combined nine games missed between these stars and a new DC in Patrick Graham, the squad is due for a bounce-back to the team they were only a few years ago. Former DC Teryl Austin was (perhaps reasonably) given the boot after a sharp decline in production last year.

Mike McCarthy will look to take the AFC North after Pittsburgh miraculously took the title in 2025. Fans will beg to have more than a ten win season and wild card loss for once, and the range of outcomes is wide. With a much better connection between the head coach and QB, refresh for the defense, and less muddy style of offense, a repeat is certainly in the books. It’s difficult to say how far a 42 year old Rodgers can take the Steel City, but the path for Pittsburgh is better than any of the seven prior teams discussed.

#2: Ravens’ Jesse Minter – Straight Flush

From replacing one long-time AFC North to another comes Jesse Minter. Already having been in the franchise from 2017-2020, Minter takes over as HC after serving as the Chargers’ DC last year. That Chargers team finished top ten in yards and points allowed for the first time since 2018. The pressure of being Baltimore’s fourth head coach in history while being a rookie head coach must be immense. There must be an incredible amount of trust in Minter however, who assisted in taking the Michigan Wolverines to a national championship victory in 2023. This was his second and final year with Michigan. The team went 28-1 in this span and have notably declined a few games from 2024 to the present day. After serving under Jim Harbaugh during this time, Minter takes over for the other Harbaugh brother.

The Baltimore Ravens have been in a great position for a few years despite being unable to “get over the hump.” New OC Declan Doyle may be able to help after bringing new life alongside Ben Johnson to the 2.0 Chicago Bears in 2025. While Caleb Williams took a great step forward, Lamar Jackson is arguably more talented and certainly proven. Baltimore saw a down year with Lamar missing a month and lacking his usual rushing upside. In 2026 however, a fully healthy Jackson is back. Also returning is future hall-of-famer RB Derrick Henry and Pro Bowler WR Zay Flowers. The loss of the Raiders’ new Linderbaum was theoretically solved with OG “Vega” Ioane being drafted 14th overall.

Anthony Weaver is another name reunited to Baltimore, being hired as the team’s DC after two years in Miami. Formerly working as their defensive line coach and assistant to John Harbaugh, Weaver looks to improve a defense that also saw a surprising 2025 decline. It’s no secret this core is run by All-Pro Safety Kyle Hamilton, along with corners Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey. (The latter two combining for seven interceptions last year.) Although nobody surpassed five sacks on the team, former All-Pro linemen Nnamdi Madubuike and Calais Campbell have signed to help the issue. The Ravens also won’t have to face a first place schedule for once; admittedly a nice change of pace.

Kicker Tyler Loop arguably cost the Ravens their season with a missed field goal in Week 18. Despite this, everyone agreed that their season was already dead in the water. They clearly weren’t themselves and were one of a few teams shockingly not in the playoffs. Realistically, this won’t be a repeating issue. The team is set to rebound with a head coach and defensive coordinator who are both familiar with Baltimore. OC Doyle is only 29. If you are hired to be an offensive coordinator in the NFL at 29, you must have some real talent. The AFC North could arguably be a three-horse race between Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and another team set to rebound in the Cincinnati Bengals. While the division isn’t guaranteed to be theirs, the Ravens have a great shot and the team is due to bounce back to their 2024 stature. After last year’s end, you know they’re coming back hungry.

#1: Bills’ Joe Brady – Royal Flush

Joe Brady is given the royal flush of hands for 2026, replacing Sean McDermott after nine seasons. The former OC of these Buffalo Bills, Brady has been discussed since serving his offensive role on the 2019 LSU Tigers. A team that included Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. (Back in college, Edwards-Helaire was highly touted. Seriously.) Brady serving as OC the last two years gave Buffalo more of the same, quite frankly. A team on the same level if not slightly higher than Baltimore. One that keeps getting close to the Super Bowl without actually making it there. Is this Brady’s fault? Of course not. He was just promoted to head coach after going 25-9 the last two years. Buffalo gets it.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: QB Josh Allen is really good at football. One of the best in the game who has brought the Bills to their best days since actually making it to the big game. James Cook III seems to be the real deal in the backfield, and the team has acquired a genuine WR1 in D.J. Moore. Their first one in three years after the exit of Stefon Diggs. In fact: besides a change at Left Guard, every member of this Bills offense returns for 2026. New OC Pete Carmichael is given massive credit for the Hall of Fame career of QB Drew Brees, and assisted the Denver Broncos in their massive turnaround the last two years. This on top of a team that’s finished top six in points scored the last six years? Yes please.

While the Bills may not carry an elite defense nowadays, last year was an improvement on 2024. They only gave up three fewer points but finished ten spots higher in yards allowed. DE Joey Bosa is gone, but Gregory Rousseau returns after leading the team with seven sacks. Safety Cole Bishop is on a rookie contract and already leading the team with three picks last year. CB Tre’Davious White resurrected his career, while the team drafted DE TJ Parker and CB Davison Igbinosun 35th and 62nd respectively to help new DC Jim Leonhard. Much as Carmichael helped revitalize Denver’s offense the last two years, Leonhard worked closely with QB Bo Nix. It should also be mentioned that Leonhard had a decent career in the NFL for a decade.

Buffalo would’ve won the AFC East last year had the New England Patriots not shocked the league and country as a whole. The offense is in their prime with their defense set to continue rising. With your new head coach already very familiar with the Bills’ system, there is little concern for error. Perhaps Brady is the key to Buffalo at least making it back to the big one. Whether they do or not, the Bills should and will be feared in 2026. He easily has the best support cast and team we’ve talked about, and will be raking in the winnings with his royal flush.